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Oil prices drop, Nifty to recover?

Good Morning, Everyone, It has been a cat and mouse game between the Nifty and the oil prices and the fluctuations due to the geopolitical issues are keeping Nifty volatile within a range of 17000-17300.

As discussed earlier, 17300-17400 remains a strong resistance zone for now, which needs to be broken upwards for any up move, and similarly, 16900-17000 zone will act as a major support to the Nifty.

At close yesterday, the Sensex was down 89.14 points or 0.15 percent at 57,595.68, and the Nifty was down 22.90 points or 0.13 percent at 17,222.80.

The Nifty opened with a gap down, but went higher, however, closed below previous day as shown below.

Global Markets:

US stocks rose following choppy trading abroad on Thursday, and oil prices pulled back, as investors watched western leaders present a unified front against Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Technology companies lifted US stock indices after a sharp fall in the previous session, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite up 269.24 points, or nearly 2 percent, to 14,191.84.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 349.44 points, or about 1 percent, to 34,707.94 and the S&P 500 gained 63.92 points, or 1.43 percent, to 4,520.16.

Stocks in Japan rose in early trade Friday as Wall Street stocks rallied overnight and oil prices fell. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.3 percent, while the Topix rose 0.24 percent. Japan reported inflation data, showing its core consumer price index hit a two-year high in March, according to Reuters. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 stayed in positive territory as it inched up 0.13 percent, with some gains in miners.

Indian Market:

Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a positive opening for the broader index in India with a gain of 88 points.

India’s projected economic growth for 2022 has been downgraded by over 2 percent to 4.6 percent by the United Nations, a decrease attributed to the ongoing war in Ukraine, with New Delhi expected to face restraints on energy access and prices, reflexes from trade sanctions, food inflation, tightening policies and financial instability, according to a UN report released on Thursday.

The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report downgraded its global economic growth projection for 2022 to 2.6 percent from 3.6 percent due to shocks from the Ukraine war and changes in macroeconomic policies that put developing countries, particularly at risk.

The report said while Russia will experience a deep recession this year, significant slowdowns in growth are expected in parts of Western Europe and Central, South, and South-East Asia.

Measures such as demand management policy or flexible interest rates, which are aimed at reviving the economy and helping households may also adversely affect the latter, according to a working paper of the Reserve Bank of India.

The study suggested that supply-side measures taken during COVID-19 pandemic could lead to a decline in the government’s social expenditure, adversely affecting household welfare. On the other hand, managing demand to bring respite to households also can have adverse effects.

After crossing the $550-billion mark in the first 11 months of the financial year, India’s import bill is set to hit record highs in FY22 and probably touch $600 billion, sources say. Led by high prices of crude oil along with gold, diamond and industrial inputs, imports are set to continue their strong rise in the first half of FY23.

The government has, however, been silent about its import bill even as it celebrated a record export turnover. The import numbers were not mentioned even in the press release issued by the commerce ministry to announce the achievement on exports or at the official briefing on March 23. The government announced that day that export turnover had risen to $400 billion by March 21, which was historic and impressive considering the disruptions experienced by global supply chains through the year.

India is estimated to have exported merchandise worth $26 billion in the first 21 days of March, after exporting goods worth $374 billion between April and February of FY22. As a result, total exports reached the $400-billion annual target set earlier for FY22, with the final tally for the year set to reach $410 billion. The government broke the convention of releasing trade data on the last day of the month to make the announcement.

FII and DII data

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have net sold shares worth Rs 1,740.71 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have net bought shares worth Rs 2,091.07 crore on March 24.

Stock Specific News:

Kalpataru Power Transmission | SBI Funds Management acquired 14.5 lakh equity shares in the EPC company through open market transactions on March 23. With this, its shareholding in the company stands at 7.25 percent, up from 6.27 percent earlier.

Tata Consumer Products | The company will consider issuing equity shares up to 1.5 percent to a foreign company through preferential allotment on March 29.

Motherson Sumi Systems | The company has won an order to manufacture, supply aftermarket molded polymer parts for commercial plane interiors. This is the first order for the company from Boeing.

Shaily Engineering Plastics | Lighthouse India III Equity Investors Ltd & PACs bought 2.48 percent in the company through open market transactions on March 24. With this, their shareholding in the company stands at 9.1 percent, up from 6.62 percent earlier.

Kohinoor Foods | The board has approved the sale of the factory unit of the company at Sonepat (Haryana), by way of slump sale, and appointment of Chashu Arora, Chartered Accountant, as CFO of the company.

Exide Industries | The company's subsidiary Chloride Metals has started commercial production at its newly set-up greenfield manufacturing facility of battery recycling at Haldia, West Bengal. The said recycling plant is equipped with modern state-of-the-art technology with the help of global engineering firm, Engitec Technologies S.P.A. Italy. The total installed capacity of the plant is 108,000 MT per annum.

Zen Technologies | The company has received a project sanction order from the Indian Army, for the design and development of a prototype of Integrated Air Defence Combat Simulator.

Anjani Foods | The company has executed a joint venture agreement with joint venture company Senta Foodwork wherein Anjani Foods holds a 51 percent stake and the rest of the shareholding is held by Quennelle 36 Foodworks. They formed a joint venture to engage in the business of bakery products.

Aurum Proptech | The company will acquire Helloworld Technologies for Rs 42 crore.

Indian Oil Corporation | IOC, the country's top fuel retailer, will raise prices of petrol and diesel by 0.80 rupees per litre from Friday, its third such increase this week, as per a report.

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